Introduction

Modeling and forecasting have for a long time served in structuring policy and providing the framework for assessing alternative courses of action. Economic models support the judgement capability of policy makers in several ways including easing the understanding of the workings of an economy and enhancing forecasting. Moreover they constitute frameworks for empirical quantification.

Objectives of the Course

The course is designed to upgrade the analytical skills of economists with operational responsibility for preparing policy papers, statistical data, forecasts and other inputs into the policy making process through intensive training in techniques for developing macroeconomic and demand for money models. In particular, the course will be beneficial for staff with operational responsibility for preparing policy papers, compiling analytical data, generating forecasts and providing other analytical inputs into the policy making process. The main objective of the course is to upgrade participants’ skills in the following:

• • Techniques of developing macroeconomic models
• • Data manipulation
• • Techniques and procedures for monitoring periodically, the movement of key economic variables and methods for tracking their effects on macroeconomic aggregates
• • Simulating the effects of external and internal shocks and policy changes and
• • Forecasting models for macroeconomic policy formulation for monetary management.

Main Themes

The main themes to be covered are as follows:

• i) Basic Econometrics; General-to-specific modeling, applications and examples, generalized methods of moments, case study of model building with the classical linear regression model etc.
• ii) Univariate Time Series Modeling and Forecasting; Standard models of stochastic processes, ARMA processes and building ARMA models, case studies in estimation of ARMA models for forecasting inflation etc.
• iii) Multivariate Models – Simultaneous equation models, vector autoregressive (VAR) models, Structural VAR models, and Bayesian VAR models.
• iv) Unit Root and co-integration in Modeling Long-Run Relationships, equilibrium correction, seasonality tests, structural breaks and tests; case study estimation of money demand functions, currency forecasting, exchange rate forecasting, etc.
• v) Modelling and Forecasting Volatility I; Non-linearity in financial time series; ARCH models, GARCH models, GARCH-M, E-GARCH and T-GARCH formulations; volatility forecasting using GARCH-type models
• vi) Modelling and Forecasting Volatility II, Approaches to forecasting, simple and naïve methods, model-based forecasting, macroeconomic model building, numerical analysis and forecasting, numerical simulations, Fan Chart projections, case study in modeling and forecasting volatility etc.
• vii) Cross-Section and Survey Methodology; How to conduct surveys, analysis of survey data; binary choice models, multinomial choice models, sample selection and truncated models
• viii) Panel Data Econometrics; basic panel data analysis, one-way error components models, two-way error components models, Dynamic panel models etc.
• ix) Other forecasting models for macroeconomic policy formulation, State-Space models and the Kalman Filter; Fan Charts for Forecasting Inflation and GDP, etc.
• x) General Equilibrium Models for Monetary Policy Analysis, methodology and evaluation of DSGE models, etc.

Who May Attend

The course is intended for middle/senior/executive level officials of central banks, ministries of finance and economic planning, and other relevant agencies whose responsibilities include policy analysis and advise on economic management. Candidates should have at least some experience in econometrics with a minimum background in economics. Participants would be required to bring along with them, their country macroeconomic data as well as laptops for the course.

Introduction

It is imperative that national authorities not only possess but also strengthen their capacity to formulate fiscal policy and monitor fiscal developments. In this regard there are internationally recognized statistical reporting framework formulated by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The Government Finance Statistics Manual (GFSM) supports the balance sheet approach to analyzing economic policy by bringing together stocks and flows in a transparent and consistent framework. The GFS framework provides a basis for analyzing public investment while providing a "common language" that fiscal analysts can use to develop a consistent approach to handling new, and often complex, government operations that create challenges in fiscal reporting and analysis.

Also, the GFSM is useful as a guide in designing quantitative macroeconomic frame work because it yields source data for the measures of government saving, investment, and consumption. These measures have been harmonized with the national accounts framework. Equally important is the fact that the framework forms an integral part of the IMF's effort to promote international standards for transparency in fiscal reporting.

The integrated government finance statistics (GFS) template can be used to determine government accounts that shows the economic activities of government in a manner suitable for fiscal analysis. Its presentation assures a focus on economic substance over legal form, improves data harmonization and comparability across countries, and ensures full transparency in respect of the different statistical concepts and practices.

Objectives of the course

This two-week course, to be organized by the IMF Statistics Department in collaboration with WAIFEM focuses on various aspects of preparing and disseminating government finance statistics (GFS). The course is, therefore, aimed at exposing participants to understanding how existing fiscal source data can be utilized effectively, how to improvesource data so as to optimize the use of these data in fiscal analysis, the linkages of the GFS with the budget process, chart of accounts, financial statements, and various other data sets, such as the monetary and financial statistics, national accounts, and the balance of payments statistics. It will also explore issues related to data reporting to the IMF as well as good practices with regards to GFS dissemination, including the IMFs special data dissemination standard.

Main Themes

The main themes to be covered include: preparation and dissemination of government finance statistics; effective utilization of existing fiscal data; improving source data so as to optimize the use of these data in fiscal analysis; the linkages of the GFS with the budget process; chart of accounts; and financial statements. Others are the various other data sets, such as the monetary and financial statistics, national accounts, and the balance of payments statistics. Issues related to data reporting to the IMF; the collaboration among national data compilers, and best practices with regard to GFS dissemination, including the IMFs special data dissemination standard.

Who May Attend

The course is designed for senior officials from the Central Banks, Ministries of Finance, Public Account Offices, Statistics Offices as well as other central government agencies involved with government finance statistics.

Introduction

Flash estimates or indexes of economic activity bring together a range of specific economic indicators to give timely overall measures of economic trends. Such measures give useful additional information to policy makers beyond annual and quarterly GDP estimates (which are more comprehensive but usually only available after substantial lags) and partial monthly and quarterly indicators. (which are up-to-the –minute but reflect just a portion of the total economy). WAIFEM will, therefore collaborate with IMF and MEFMI to organize a course on High-Frequency Indicators of Economic Activity.

Objectives of the Course

Upon completion of this course, participants should be able to:

• (i) Explain the nature and potential uses of high-frequency statistics on economic activity and their relation to and consistency with the system of national accounts,
• (ii) Design a simple framework for compiling an index of economic activity from collection of source data to application of simple statistical methods and index compilation techniques; and
• (iii) Exploit useful short-term information contained in the IEA by applying analytical tools, deriving tables, and statistical procedures.

Course Description:

The course which will be presented by the IMF Statistics Department, will discuss identification and assessment of indicators and techniques for combining indicators into a single overall index of economic activity to track trends in the economy. This course is oriented toward actual or potential compilers of short-term indicators in central banks and statistical offices as well as those involved in data collection of monthly indicators. Participants are expected to prepare a list of available monthly and quarterly indicators for their country and assemble data. These indicators will be used in the workshop part of the course to develop experimental estimates.

Who may attend

The course targets officials responsible for compiling short-term or monthly economic indicators in central banks and statistical offices. Participants should have a degree in economics or statistics or equivalent experience.

Introduction

Economic policy analysis requires considerable knowledge of basic econometric methods. This is in view of the fact that some of the time, economic variables must be measured in order to know their time paths and behaviour along trend. Empirical analysis of economic variables therefore enables the policy analysts to forecast or predict how such variables are likely to behave in the future lending themselves for control of economic models and policy purposes. To this end, West African Institute for Financial and Economic Management (WAIFEM) will organize a Regional Course on Econometric Methods for policy Analysis.

Objectives of the course

The course is structured at the basic level, and hence no prior knowledge of econometrics is required, even though this might be helpful. At the end of the course, participants should be able to conduct basic statistical and econometric analyses and forecasting to be able to inform policy. They should be able to among others: derive multiple regression parameter estimates, and perform statistical inference on regression parameters. Participants would also understand basic research methods and use econometric software (Eviews, RATS, Stata, SPSS) for basic data analysis and forecasting.

Main Themes

The course utilizes a combination of lectures, computer-based syndicate exercises, case studies as well as group presentations. The main themes include: Economic Questions and Data Collection; Basic Computing and Econometric Software for Modelling Economic and Fianncial Data (EXCEL, SPSS, EVIEWS, RATS, STATA); Review of Statistics; Review of Probability; Fundamentals of Regression Analysis; Simultaneous Equations; Introduction to Time Series Regression and Forecasting; Economic Forecasting; Research Methods: Conducting a Regression Study using Economic data.

Who May Attend

The Workshop is targeted at senior economists, including middle/executive level officials of Ministries of Finance and Economic Planning, Central Banks, and relevant public sector agencies involved in the formulation, implementation and analysis of monetary policy for effective macroeconomic management.

Introduction

This online course will be presented by the IMF Statistics Department in collaboration with WAIFEM.

Objective of the course

Upon completion of this course, using the basic concepts and principles in the compilation and dissemination of macroeconomic and financial statistics, participants should be able to:

• • Differentiate institutional units and sectors.
• • Apply the concept of residence.
• • Record stocks and flows in an integrated manner.
• • Apply appropriate accounting rules
• • Classify financial instruments.
• • Summarize the requirements and recommendations of the IMF’s Data Standards.
• • Evaluate macroeconomic inter-linkages.

Course Description:

The course will review the basic skills, concepts, and principles required to compile and disseminate macroeconomic and financial statistics. It will also cover topics such as residence, institutional units, institutional sectors, accounting rules, financial instruments, stocks and flows, the IMF’s Data Standards Initiatives, and will present the basic macroeconomic linkages among these statistics

Who May Attend

The course is designed for officials who compile macroeconomic and financial statistics in national statistical organizations, ministries of finance, economy or planning, or in central banks. Participants should have some knowledge of economics and statistics. Moreover, access to a computer with a reliable Internet connection and a Google Chrome web browser and basic Microsoft Excel skills are essential.

Introduction

Exchange rate is one of the important determinants of a country’s relative level of economic health. Therefore, the choice of an appropriate exchange rate regime by small open economies is an important policy issue. Of equal importance is the issue of the appropriate exchange rate regime within the context of regional monetary integration. To this end, WAIFEM will organize a regional course on Exchange Rate Regimes and Policies.

Objectives of the course

The course introduces participants to the different regimes and exchange rate arrangements that countries and regional bodies may choose. It addresses the factors relevant for the choices and the consequences of these choices.

Main Themes

Topics to be covered include: the debate on optimal choice of exchange rate regimes, the choice and design of appropriate exchange rate regimes, exchange rate dynamics and monetary integration in the ECOWAS countries, Economic integration and exchange rate regimes: Lessons from other regions, monetary policy in managed exchange rate regimes, financial globalization and capital flows, assessment of the equilibrium real exchange rates, and the pros and cons of capital controls.

Benefits to Participants/Countries

At the end of the course participants will become familiar with the different aspects of exchange rate policies in typical developing countries.

Who May Attend

The Workshop is targeted at senior economists, including middle/executive level officials of Ministries of Finance and Economic Planning, Central Banks, and relevant public sector agencies involved in the formulation, implementation and analysis of exchange rate policy for effective macroeconomic management.

Introduction

The conduct of monetary policy is largely based on country-specific monetary framework. In certain instances, there may be inconsistences in these frameworks which may pose serious threat to the success of monetary policy. This calls for the implementation of a consistent monetary policy framework anchored on sound understanding and application of its core tenets. In addition, the process of taking monetary policy decisions involves a thorough assessment of the various facets of the economy. This policy making process is aided by the presence of a variety of analytical tools. The products of this process offer the critical inputs needed to inform policy decisions.

Objective of the course

This course aims to provide an introduction to monetary policy frameworks and an overview of different analytical tools used by central bankers in the process of monetary policy decision making. At the end of course, participants should have an overview of the key aspects of monetary policy frameworks and a broad understanding of major issues related to them. For this purpose the course will focus on reviewing the fundamental theoretical background as well as the strategic and operational matters of monetary policy. In addition, the course will provide an overview of different analytical tools used by central banks in the process of monetary policy decision making. Specifically, the course will highlight on analytical approaches to monitor and assess developments in the money market, money and credit, capital markets and the monetary transmission process.

Main Themes

• • Review of theoretical basics of monetary policy (including transmission mechanism)
• • Key building blocks of monetary policy frameworks (strategic vs operational framework)
• • Consistency and conflict of interests
• • Key elements of strategic frameworks (monetary policy objectives, intermediate targets, nominal anchors)
• • Key elements of operational frameworks (operational targets and monetary policy instruments)
• • Money market analysis, monetary analysis, capital markets analysis and monetary transmission analysis

Who May Attend

The content level of the course is targeted at junior and mid-level central bankers with little to no knowledge and work experience in the area of monetary policy who are interested in gaining some general overview of monetary policy frameworks and basic understanding of their key elements and related issues. The course is also designed for staff that are relatively new in the area of monetary policy analysis. It may equally be of benefit to staff working in other areas in the central bank such as communication, financial stability, banking supervision, payment systems and statistics departments.

Introduction

The balance of payments is a statistical statement that summarizes, for a specific period of time, the economic transactions of an economy with the rest of the world. It is imperative that the compilers of national accounts and balance of payments and external statistics constantly upscale their knowledge on the methodology for collecting and compiling balance of payments and other statistics. Such knowledge and skills are important in the analysis, formulation and implementation of macroeconomic policies.

Objectives of the course

The course, presented by the IMF Statistics Department, provides practical advice on compiling and disseminating the international accounts (balance of payments and IIP) statistics based on the BPM6 Compilation Guide. The purpose of the course is to demonstrate how the conceptual framework described in the BPM6 may be translated into practice.

The course will, therefore, focus on compilation practices, including data sources that international accounts can draw on, as well as complex methodological and compilation issues related to specific balance of payments and IIP components and other issues that cut across accounts. Participants will have the opportunity to discuss compilation challenges they have encountered and gain insights into the analytical uses of the international accounts.

Upon completion of the course, participants will be able to:

• • Compile and disseminate balance of payments and IIP statistics using the techniques provided in the BMP6 Compilation Guide.
• • Identify new data sources to be used to improve the compilation of balance of payments and IIP statistics.
• • Apply statistical techniques for dealing with complex methodological and compilation issues.
• • Deepen their knowledge of the analytical use of balance of payments and IIP statistics.

Main Themes

The following broad themes will be treated:

•  input-output matrix
•  social accounting matrix
•  conceptual framework of the balance of payments
•  survey techniques and methodology for compiling balance of payments
•  inter-linkages between the balance of payments and other sectoral accounts
•  flow of funds matrix
•  balance of payments analysis and forecasting and
•  balance of payments entries under the 6th edition of the IMF Balance of Payments Manual.

Who May Attend

The course is targeted at middle/executive level officials of central banks, ministries of finance, economic planning and trade, government statistics bureau/offices, and other public sector agencies involved in the compilation of national accounts and balance of payments as well as the analysis, formulation and implementation of macroeconomic policies.

Introduction

This course, presented by the Institute for Capacity Development in collaboration with WAIFEM will provide rigorous training on the use of simple Dynamic New Keynesian (DNK) models to conduct monetary policy analysis and forecasting.

Objectives of the Course

Upon completion of this course, participants should be able to:

• • Customize a simple model of an economy that embodies the monetary policy transmission mechanism, and the shocks this economy may face.
• • Acquire and apply tools used in modern central banks to conduct monetary policy analysis and forecasting using the small semi-structural model.
• • Conduct now casting and near-term forecasting using estimation-based econometric techniques supported by expert judgment.
• • Use the small semi-structural model to develop consistent medium-term quarterly projections of key macro variables e.g. output, inflation, interest rate and exchange rate.
• • Identify risks in the baseline forecast and draw up medium-term projections for alternative scenarios that assume that the risks materialize.
• • Start building a simple model for monetary policy analysis using their own national data when they return home.

Course Description

The course will emphasize analysis of monetary policy responses to macroeconomic imbalances and shocks. Participants are provided with the tools necessary to develop or extend the canonical model to fit their own monetary policy framework and selected features of their country’s economy. Country case studies are used to reinforce participants’ understanding and to help them compare and assess a variety of possible experiences.

Who May Attend

The course is designed for mid-level to senior officials responsible for monetary policy decision making and staff doing macroeconomic analysis and forecasting or operating macroeconomic models. Participants are expected to have an advanced degree in economics or equivalent experience. It is strongly recommended that applicants have completed the Monetary Policy (MP) course or the online Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting (MPAFx) course. Participants are expected to be comfortable using quantitative software such as E Views and Matlab/Octave, although specific knowledge of these is not required.

Introduction

There are new and emerging challenges facing currency managers in central banks. These include, risk management, forecasting demand for currency, and other developments across the entire range of activities within the currency management function. For example, there is the need for an efficient public education strategy and communication, to ensure the integrity of banknotes and currency. Also, with the emphasis on cost savings, central banks need to look carefully at where maximum efficiencies can be made, and to be aware of the risks.

Long lead times in banknote production also make it imperative for central banks to be able to model banknote demand accurately (at least five years into the future). Clearly, strategic management of currency is impossible without accurate forecasts. Currency demand models must therefore draw on macroeconomic variables such as interest rates, inflation and growth forecasts, and also incorporate historical data on currency deposits/withdrawals and replacement rates etc.

Objectives of the workshop

This workshop is aimed at exploring the key challenges central banks face in currency management and how they are tackling them. Specifically, the course is designed to deepen the knowledge and upgrade the analytical skills of staff in performing the currency management function. It is also designed to enhance participants’ forecasting techniques and expose them to contemporary issues in banknote and currency management.

Broad Themes

The workshop content includes:

• • The Banknote Life-Cycle and Risk Management
• • Demand Forecasting, Fitness Standards, Sorting and Processing
• • New Directions and New Demands in Banknote Design
• • New challenges and Threats
• • Movements in currency in circulation and monetary policy formulation
• • Denominational impact analysis of currency structure and computation
• • Banknote Issue policy and practice
• • Forecasting currency in circulation, etc.

Who May Attend:

The Workshop is targeted at senior/executive level officials of Central Banks and other monetary authorities that are involved in currency management issues. The programme will also be beneficial for financial journalists to scale-up their knowledge about currency management issues, and thereby enhance their advocacy roles.